The National Retail Federation, citing economic indicators that point to “energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year,” last week hiked its full year retail sales forecast. The trade group is now forecasting a 10.5-13.5 percent increase in all U.S. retail sales this year to a range of $4.44-$4.56 trillion. Non-store and online sales, included in the total, are expected to grow 18-23 percent to at least $1.09 trillion as consumers continue to utilize ecommerce. In  February, as uncertainty over consumer spending and COVID-19 vaccine distribution persisted, the NRF’s initial 2021 retail sales growth projection was 6.5 percent. Now, the group is also projecting full-year U.S. GDP growth nearing 7 percent versus a prior forecast of 4.5-5.0 percent.

“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

May U.S. retail sales, reported yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau, fell 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted from April but up 28.1 percent year-over-year. For the first five months of 2021, retail sales are 17.6 percent higher year-over-year.