An estimated 26 percent of Americans intend to spend less during Holiday 2024 than last year with 38 percent of lower-income households (less than $45K) saying they will spend less during the upcoming season, according to a new survey from global consulting firm AlixPartners.

The 3-6 percent sales increase forecasted in the survey represents a decline from 2022’s 6.6 percent U.S. holiday sales growth. The survey of 1,000 consumers also found that 33 percent of shoppers will trade down to more affordable brand and retail private label offerings and 38 percent of consumers will purchase 50 percent or more of their gifts on sale.

Some product categories, including footwear, are expected to record lower year-over-year sales, particularly since more consumers say they will spend with more discretion and their own perceived value, according to AlixPartners’ Andrew Webb. Footwear (-3%) and apparel (-6%) are each expected to have lower sales but will not experience as much decline as other categories such as home furnishings (-15%) and jewelry (-15%).