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Holiday Shopping Outlook

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An estimated 73 percent of shoppers could be watching their spending more closely this holiday season compared to last year, according to a recent 4over survey of more than 1,000 U.S. consumers. Retailers are responding to consumers’ needs to maximize the holiday spending budgets by offering special deals starting in October. Smaller and medium-size businesses are expected to follow the leads of Walmart, Target and Amazon by crafting special promotional days and deals leading up to Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Target is set to conduct deal days from Oct. 6 to 8, and Amazon will host a second annual “Prime Day” for customers on Oct. 11. But most holiday deals should be available by the week of November 13.

After 8.3 percent overall holiday sales growth in 2020, according to National Retail Federation estimates, this season’s increase is pegged at 4 to 6 percent to a range of $1.45 to $1.47 trillion, according to a forecast by Deloitte. Some of the total sales increases will be fueled by higher prices, which are expected to drive some consumers online in search of bargains. E-commerce sales are forecast to increase 12.8 to 14.3 percent to a range of $260 to $264 billion versus 2020’s 8.4 percent increase, according to Deloitte. 

NetElixir, a Princeton, NJ-based marketing agency for retail, Direct-To-Consumer and B2B brands, is forecasting 7 percent year-on-year growth for e-commerce sales in November and December. Deep discounting will not be limited to days such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Instead, look for week-long promotions to commence the Monday before Thanksgiving. The company is encouraging retailers to “get creative” with category-level promotions and brand storytelling to draw more consumers to the products and brands they are selling. But NetElixir warns that shipping cut-off dates and product availability will be key limiting factors this holiday.

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Sep 28, 2022

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