The percentage increase of U.S. footwear imports is likely to plummet into negative territory this year to below 2.0 billion pairs after nearly 30 percent growth in 2022 to nearly 2.75 billion pairs, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Commission and a forecast from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers Association (FDRA). Correspondingly, the value of U.S. footwear imports, which grew approximately 25 percent in 2022 to more than $35 billion, are expected to decline nearly 25 percent this year to slightly more than $25 billion. These findings were part of a recent Digital Shoe Sourcing brief by the FDRA.

But record import costs and inflation, which have contributed to higher retail prices, will likely push U.S. consumer spending on footwear up by nearly 35 percent this year to nearly $110 billion. The trade group characterizes the ongoing developments as a correction to the overall footwear import business. The footwear industry is adjusting bloated inventory levels downward and establishing new order volumes starting with the Spring 2024 season.

The current market conditions have disrupted production team schedules in Asian markets and have some U.S. footwear companies concerned that a softer U.S. economy will weigh on second half demand and force retail prices downward, putting a squeeze on margins.

Meanwhile, footwear imports into the U.S. from China are forecast to account for less than 40 percent of all volume, down from a peak 75 percent of all U.S. footwear imports in 2009-10. Footwear imports from Vietnam, are predicted to rise by mid-single digits this year after more than 20 percent growth in 2022. Imports from Indonesia will likely be flat this year after solid gains in 2021 and 2022.

The trade group believes China will continue to shed manufacturing jobs in footwear sourcing as more brands move to diversify their supply chains. That change should benefit both Vietnam and Indonesia and may be beneficial to India, an emerging footwear sourcing player that is working to develop more footwear production and capacity helped by recent investments.