I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The in-person, face-to-face connections you  get while attending trade shows and conferences cannot be replaced.  Entrepreneurship is a personal business, and for sit and fit retailers? There is nothing more personal than that.  

Recently, I was fortunate to attend both the National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail’s Big Show in New York and the Innovative Retail Show (IR) in Las Vegas the following day.  I jotted down a few of the talking points from the presentations at NRF that had me nodding my head. I was able to talk at length the next day with both brands and retailers at IR, and get instant feedback from them on topics such as the economy or new store concepts. “This is what the economists are saying about 2025, ‘which was quite a year,’ and here’s what’s they say is in store for 2026.” “What do you think?” “I just saw this new concept that store owners might want to consider. Let me tell you about it.” Etc. etc. And, while walking the aisles at IR, I saw a few new brands, to which I always ask, “Please tell me more.”

As time seems to go by just a little faster these days — did I mention that Footwear Insight is celebrating its 20-year anniversary — many aisle chats simply pick up on the conversations where we had left off just a trade show or conference ago… as if there is no gap. And that’s what relationships are built on. Talking with many brand and store owners, sometimes in the same conversation, is what makes this channel so special.

Here are some of the talking points from NRF that I’d like to share:

On AI…

Productivity is not a replacement of people. It is an amazing tool that helps us with what and how to merchandise, and how to better market those products. — Ed Stack, Executive Chairman, Dick’s Sporting Goods

Walmart wants to close the gap for consumers on their shopping journey: I want it… I have it. With AI, people make a difference. AI delivers the right info and the right data to our people, and that includes our supply chain.
— John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart US

On Google AI…

From discovery to decision. Keywords from national conversations. Consumers type in what they are looking for, AI does the work. If it’s a new customer: discount’s right in there. If it is a returning customer, provides other purchase incentives. With Gemini Enterprise as your merchandising agent,  it’s your brand, your data and your ecosystem.
— Sundar Pichai, CEO Google and Alphabet

On the Economy...

Panelists include David Tinsley, Senior Economist Bank of America Institute, Michael Pearce, Chief US Economist, Oxford Economics, and Mark Mathews, Chief Economist, NRF

Policy was pivotal to economic outlook, including liberation day / tariffs.

The AI boom is bigger than the dot.com boom (and bust). The level of investment: Billions. The Level of revenue: Millions. The difference? AI is being financed out of earnings, not debt.  

This past holiday season we saw a 4.7% increase. Not only price increases due to tariffs, but in volume, too. People shopped early. Online share 50%+. And Cyber Monday went into December.

The economy shows strong growth, but not creating jobs. It is difficult to find jobs entering the work force. Financial wealth is much larger than what we are used to due to AI growth. Higher HHI is masquerading the lower HHI. That “wealth effect” results in a K-shaped economy that we are seeing.

SALT Cap—they will spend that money on travel or discretionary items. We could get a narrowing of K shape with tax refunds coming to lower HHI families.

A jobless expansion—Expectations are that job growth will accelerate, but AI increases productivity. While the recent grads might be more effected now with AI, they are more adaptable to AI, which is better for the longer term outlook for them.

The weakest generation—Generation X. Aging parents, kids at home, approaching retirement = pressure to save.

2026 Outlook...

Tariffs’ sting impact should fade, SALT Cap and mortgage rates should decline, add in tax refunds. How much does it flow down to the consumer, probably not that much. Tax cuts go to the higher HHI. The jobless expansion is still a worry, and keeping a higher fed rate would keep this weak.

Headline numbers are not much to look at. It’s what’s going on below the surface. Online surveys vs. in person surveys —politics are now a factor in results. Pay attention to what people are doing, not what they are saying. Consumers have a lot of negativity, but some are optimistic. What’s the disconnect?  Depressed consumers, but they are still spending. We call it “Griping but Swiping.”

A cap on credit card interest rates? That’s not good. It’s like rent control. Good for some, bad for others. Overall supply drops. It should be noted that the share of people paying off their monthly debt is rising.  We also see those paying only a minimum is rising a little too. So, the “tail” is getting fatter, and 25% of the population is living paycheck to paycheck. Debt is affordable, but not for everyone.

NAFTA: negations continue, but there is a lot more compliance, so it might mitigate the effect of tariffs

BNPL: Rising, but not explosively. Most who spend online…easier to do the BNPL, but it needs to be for new customers for retailers to benefit.

AI: It is not so much the new tech, but it is the adoption that changes things. New applications, new business models. Message to companies: AI is transitional and transferable. The driver is not consumption, it’s business development.

In this issue of Footwear Insight, our Business Report Quarterly and FI Index shows traction amid the multiple impacts. See page 18.
   Continuing with our talking points theme, Alan Miklofsky weighs in on how vendor-retailer conversations keep missing the point, and how to fix them.
   Our feature on what’s new from comfort footwear brands talks about raising the bar on the comfort experience.
   Our Boot Book feature, talks about a perfect boot recipe: On trend style + the perfect fit.  And consumers tell us what they like most about their favorite boots.

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-Jeff Nott, Publisher