Among them: a possible, changing (and more positive) landscape for interest rates and inflation; new Back-To-School and Holiday seasons complete with some key, reliable brands facing their own key issues and excess product overhang for others; and a presidential election that may cast uncertainty and spark market volatility as the calendar approaches 2025.

Here, with some feedback from independent retailers, Footwear Insight examines three issues that should be on all retail radar screens during the dog days of summer and the cooler fall days ahead.

Topic 1

Can Back-to-School Provide a Needed Spark after any Summer Doldrums?

Some 17 states from Alabama and Texas in the South to Connecticut and Massachusetts in the Northeast will offer their residents tax-free shopping days before the end of August. Most are two- or three-day periods that are limited to purchases under a certain amount and generally benefit clothing, footwear and school supplies. In two states, Maryland and Connecticut, residents will have a tax-free period for a week. In Florida, residents will have two weeks for tax-free purchases.

Research firm Circana offers up a few clear trends for the upcoming B-T-S season as those in some circles ponder whether recent inflationary concerns could impact what and how much is purchased by parents and students this year.

• Consumers will shop according to their calendar, not retail’s. Despite early brand and retailer marketing promotion at B-T-S 2023, most seasonal footwear purchases were made closer to school starting dates. Last year, footwear sales peaked during the first two weeks of August.

• Footwear sales for kids and teens will outpace adult purchases. Weather fluctuations and tighter budgets are prompting consumers to focus on the footwear needed in the moment. B-T-S shopping has drifted to buying what children need to start school first rather than the tradition of purchasing new kicks for the whole family during the period. During the 12 months ended April 2024, footwear sales for kids and teens under 18 in-creased by 7 percent, but declined by 3 percent for adults, reported the Circana Consumer Tracker.

• The pandemic-driven ups and downs in promotional activity in recent seasons will subside. Promotional activity should be more typical this B-T-S season, even though many consumers remain focused on value. Quality, price, and child and teen requests score higher than promotions/discounts on a Q1 Circana survey.

“Fashion tends evolve annually, and we are committed to staying abreast of these changes while remaining true to our mission,” commented Jayson Nix, director of inventory and facilities for abbadabba’s, the Tucker, GA-based retailer that also operates coolshoes.com. “Our mission is centered on being Atlanta’s premier source for innovative and health-conscious footwear. This commitment guides our selection process, ensuring that we offer the latest styles and trends that align with our mission’s goals.”

Looking beyond the B-T-S window, Impact Analysis reporting on the recent Amazon Prime Days suggests retailers should prepare for cautious consumers during the upcoming holiday season.

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Topic 2

Navigating the Return Process, With Plenty To Consider A

When it comes to return policies for retailers, there are several federal laws that apply to returns, including requiring a refund if a product is defective, but navigating the entire return policy landscape generally depends on where your store is located since many states regulate consumer refunds. Making the matter more complicated, states may or may not explicitly apply their respective return law policies to online purchases.

In California, for example, retailers are required to post their refund policy unless they offer a full cash refund, exchange, or store credit within seven days of the purchase date. Those retailers failing to adhere to this Golden State policy are required to accept full refunds within 30 days of purchase.

Consumers who do not see a refund policy clearly displayed in Florida, have the right to return merchandise for a full refund within seven days of the item’s purchase. The consumer’s right to a full cash refund or credit is more generous in New Jersey. If a store does not conspicuously post its refund policy, the customer is allowed to receive a cash refund or store credit up to 20 days after the purchase date. Meanwhile, in Rhode Island, without the presence of a posted in-store return policy, the customer has 10 business days from the date of purchase to return an item.

Returns in the retail footwear business can have additional layers of issues to consider in the return policy process ranging from customers attempting to return a purchase at a different retailer’s website to presenting two different size shoes, clearly from separate past purchases, for refund or store credit.

Modern Shoe, an independent retailer based in Provo, UT, changed its return policy a few years ago.

“A major reason for that is we made it specific and detailed to protect all customers,” explained Will Nettleton, manager, Modern Shoe. “In doing so, it is our promise that we will uphold it fully to benefit the customer, and other customers to know that they are treated equally.”

He added, “Hard sales are never something we practice, ever. Staff are trained to ensure fit and function first and foremost, and sometimes ‘lose’ the sale if it may result in a negative experience. Our return numbers are lower than the industry average because we take this different approach.”

At Reyers Shoe Store, customers receive a full credit on their charge card for unworn merchandise returned within 30 days of purchase and a credit at the current selling price (with no credit on shipping charges) for returns after 30 days from date of purchase. Mark Jubelirer, owner of the Niles, OH-based retailer, has plenty to say about the return policies related to foot-wear today.

“It is my understanding that big online sellers of footwear are now divesting themselves of those customers who abuse their very liberal returns policies. They no longer want the business of these flagrant abusers, and that’s completely unsurprising to me,” he offered. “…One of the reasons that Reyers decided not to pursue online sales was that we could no longer afford to absorb the freight charges of outgoing purchases, and product was being shipped back to us.

“The reason that the ‘big boys’ were happy to offer free shipping was so that they could vanquish their competitors from traditional retail establishments,” opined Jubelirer. “…Those of smaller independent retailers who have survived, may wish to get back into the game.”

Topic 3

Embracing Technology to Improve a Store’s Metrics

Although some Wall Street experts have soured and become skeptical over the hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI), more retailers are turning to technology to improve the in-store experience for customers and the communication level among staff.

Modern Shoe’s Nettleton says the store’s new foot scanner, which replaced one that was installed in 2009, has been beneficial to its business.

Meanwhile, abbadabba’s has made strides in upgrading its barcode scanner technology to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of its inventory systems and reducing costs. And the retailer has streamlined communication among its employees with tools such as Slack, retail training academies and Google docs.

“These platforms facilitate real-time, paperless communication and allow us to ensure that critical information is promptly delivered and acknowledged,” Nix says. “This approach not only enhances operational efficiency but also ensures that our stores are well-informed about product details.”

An area that doesn’t fall into the tech bucket but could greatly benefit costs for retailers is the recent Supreme Court ruling allowing a legal challenge to debit card swipe fees to move forward. The lawsuit challenges a Federal Reserve cap on debit card swipe fees that took effect in 2011. In 2023, the Fed proposed lowering the per transaction fee cap to 14.4 cents plus .04 percent for fraud loss and 1.3 cents for fraud prevention. The NRF has said the fraud prevention fee should be eliminated since the 2015 adoption of EMV chip cards shifted fraud costs to merchants.